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January 8, 2026

GTA Winter So Far: A Very Early Season & Relentless Snow

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If you were expecting winter to show up around mid-December and then slowly build up, this season is giving us a plot twist. The 2025–26 winter in the Greater Toronto Area has been anything but ordinary.

First of all, things kicked off way ahead of schedule. We saw our first significant snowfall of 5+ cm on November 9, 2025 — the earliest November accumulation we’ve had in decades. Historically, the first 5 cm doesn’t happen until around December 12, so for it to hit in early November is definitely notable.

From late November into early December, lake-effect snow squalls and Arctic blasts continued to bring bursts of snow and blustery winds across southern Ontario.

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December’s Snow Patterns

December didn’t mellow things out, with repeated rounds of snow, flurries, and wintry mixes throughout the month.

While totals didn’t smash all records, local weather trackers and community data show near-persistent snowfall through December, leading many residents to feel like we were digging out week after week.

January — Cold, Snowy, and Icy Commutes

The first week of January continued the trend with more snow, occasional squalls, and freezing rain that made some GTA commutes downright messy — including ice build-ups that caused power outages in parts of Markham and surrounding areas.

Long-range forecasts are predicting periods of colder-than-average temperatures through January and ongoing snowfall through the month, so it looks like winter isn’t going anywhere yet.

So… How Unusual Is This?

Compared to recent “normal” winters in the GTA:

We saw significant snow much earlier than average — early November instead of mid- to late-December.
Rather than a slow buildup, we’ve had consistent snow band activity and lake-effect patterns that rarely took a break.
And while final totals are still being tallied, snowfall through December and January has been well above what meteorologists expect for these months.

So Why Is It Like This?

A few large-scale atmospheric players have been in the mix:

La Niña influences — these kinds of ocean-atmosphere patterns tend to favour more active winter weather across much of Canada and the northern U.S.
Polar vortex shifts and cold intrusions — weaker or wobbly polar vortex patterns can push Arctic air farther south and earlier in the season, fuelling winter storms and cold snaps.

Put together, these factors make for a winter that feels bigger than usual — earlier starts, freezing rain, and more frequent snow bands, including those “why is it still snowing?” stretches we’ve all been living through.

We’ll have to wait until this winter finishes out to see the final results of winter 2025–26 in the GTA.

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December 18, 2025

2025–2026 Winter Forecast — A Look Ahead (With a Grain of Salt)

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Winter is coming — and while the Farmers’ Almanac has made its predictions for the 2025–2026 season, here at MPS Property Services, we always approach these long-range forecasts with a healthy dose of skepticism. Weather is constantly changing, and countless factors — from shifting jet streams to local microclimates — can dramatically affect what actually happens on the ground. Still, it’s interesting to see what trends the Almanac is predicting for Ontario this winter.

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Temperature Outlook: Colder Stretches Expected

According to the Farmers’ Almanac, much of Canada, including Ontario, is likely to see near-normal to slightly colder temperatures overall. While southern Ontario may experience some milder days, cold snaps are expected to punctuate the season, particularly in January and February. That said, history has shown us that the timing and intensity of cold waves can be unpredictable. At MPS, we prepare for the worst but hope for the best — because a sudden Arctic blast can always surprise even the most seasoned forecaster.

Snow & Precipitation: Snowy, But Hard to Pin Down

The Almanac suggests that Ontario could experience frequent snowstorms, lake-effect snow, and icy conditions, especially in the southern and eastern regions. However, anyone who’s lived through Canadian winters knows that snow forecasts are notoriously tricky. Storms can move faster or slower, change paths, or fizzle out entirely. For residents and property managers, the key is being ready for anything — heavy snow one week, slushy thaw the next.

Seasonal Highlights — With a Disclaimer

Late December 2025:

Early winter snowfall could set in, but amounts and timing are uncertain.

January 2026:

The Almanac predicts the coldest stretch, with possible heavy snow and Arctic blasts — but remember, winter can be unpredictable.

February 2026:

Peak winter may bring lake-effect snow and icy conditions. Still, storms are difficult to forecast with precision.

March 2026:

Transitioning weather may include late-season snow, ice, and occasional thaws.

At MPS, we use forecasts like these as a rough guide, not a guarantee. Every winter is unique, and our teams prepare for variable conditions every season.

Practical Advice for Ontario Residents

Whether you’re a homeowner, property manager, or business operator, it’s best to plan for a range of scenarios:

Have snow removal equipment ready and check that it’s in good working order.
Keep ice-melt, shovels, and other supplies on hand.
Be mindful of safety during extreme cold, icy conditions, or sudden storms.
Stay alert to updated weather reports — the Almanac is interesting, but local forecasts are more actionable.

Final Thoughts

While the Farmers’ Almanac offers a traditional glimpse at winter trends, MPS knows that Canadian winters rarely follow a script. Weather is complex, conditions change constantly, and forecasts should always be taken with a grain of salt. That said, a little preparation can go a long way, so use predictions as a reference — but rely on readiness, experience, and caution to get through winter safely.

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