{"id":4890,"date":"2019-01-04T02:12:25","date_gmt":"2019-01-04T07:12:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aboutmpswr.wpengine.com\/?p=4890"},"modified":"2021-09-15T16:57:33","modified_gmt":"2021-09-15T16:57:33","slug":"an-analysis-of-past-ontario-winters-what-can-we-expect-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aboutmps.com\/blog\/an-analysis-of-past-ontario-winters-what-can-we-expect-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"An Analysis of Past Ontario Winters: What Can We Expect This Year?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Every winter season people will ask, \u201cWhat\u2019s this winter going to be like\u201d?
\nEven those of us who work in the Snow & Ice Management<\/a> industry want to know what we can expect weather-wise over the next five months. Long-term seasonal projections can offer only a general guideline, with very little real practical information; \u201ccolder than usual\u201d, or \u201cslightly wetter\u201d, for instance, but no real details or specific answers.
\nIt is left to a careful statistical analysis of past winter seasons to provide a better understanding of what our \u201ctypical\u201d winters have been like over the past \u201cX\u201d number of years; and use that information to offer up a glimmer of expectations for the season ahead.
\nSo what do the numbers actually show us?
\n\"recycle
\nThe Environment Canada graph above provides 30 years of accumulated data for average monthly temperatures, as well as daily highs and lows, and precipitation totals. Obviously, our focus is on the \u201cwinter months\u201d, November through April.
\nIn this graph, precipitation also includes rainfall, which can historically occur during any winter month. As expected, January & February are our coldest months, averaging about -5\u00ba c, with December close behind at -3\u00ba c.
\nBut what about the all-important snowfall totals? The same data set was also refined to determine the \u201csnowiest\u201d winter months in the table below:
\n\"recycle
\nAgain, we see the same three months way ahead in the snowfall total category, with December\u2019s total of 34.2 cm falling between January\u2019s 38.9 cm and February\u2019s 29.9 cm. Of note is the annual (or \u201cwinter seasonal\u201d) average of 142.6 cm of total snowfall.
\nThis gives us a pretty good starting point for understanding what we can expect for most winters. Now let\u2019s examine some more recent monthly winter data.
\nOnce again, we have used Environment Canada statistics to provide the data in the following table:
\n\"recycle
\nSo, how does this table compare to our previous 1981-2010 data? Remarkably well, actually!
\nWe see some variation within the more recent totals for snowfall; with a low of 96.2 cm in the 2015-2016 winter season, and a high of 184.8 cm in 2013-2014.
\nDecember, 2016 (67.7 cm) was the snowiest month in the period from 2013-2018, with February, 2015 the coldest (-13.3\u00ba c). However, the overall average snowfall totals are very close; 142.6 cm (\u201981-\u201910) vs 137.9 cm (\u201913-\u201918), a difference of only 4.7 cm on average, or 3.4%.
\nThe snowiest three months remain the same, just in a different order. If we combine the three monthly totals, again we see a remarkably close cumulative total for the period of December to February: 103 cm (\u201981-\u201910) vs 104 cm (\u201913-\u201918).
\nSo there you have it, our best prediction for what we can expect this winter:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Approximately 140 cm of snowfall, the majority of which will fall in December through February<\/li>\n
  2. January & February will be the coldest months at about -5.5\u00ba c<\/li>\n
  3. We will likely get some snow in April, just not as much as we received last winter<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
    \nCONTACT US<\/strong><\/a>
    \n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Every winter season people will ask, \u201cWhat\u2019s this winter going to be like\u201d? Even those of us who work in the Snow & Ice Management industry want to know what we can expect weather-wise over the next five months. Long-term seasonal projections can offer only a general guideline, with very little real practical information; \u201ccolder […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6261,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Can We Expect This Year? Analyzing Past Ontario Winters<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What can past Ontario winters tell us about this coming winter? 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